{"id":2498,"date":"2026-01-11T11:57:39","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T10:57:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/?page_id=2498"},"modified":"2026-01-11T11:57:39","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T10:57:39","slug":"impact-sur-les-recettes-fiscales-et-la-securite-sociale","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/programme\/priorites\/reindustrialisation\/impact-sur-les-recettes-fiscales-et-la-securite-sociale\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact sur les recettes fiscales et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\" src=\"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/reindustrieW1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2499\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact estim\u00e9 sur les recettes publiques (horizon 5 ans)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rappel du sc\u00e9nario \u00e9conomique retenu<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>PIB belge<\/strong> : ~600 Md\u20ac<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gain de PIB \u00e0 5 ans<\/strong> : <strong>+3 \u00e0 +4 %<\/strong><br>\u2192 <strong>+18 \u00e0 +24 Md\u20ac de PIB annuel suppl\u00e9mentaire<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cr\u00e9ations nettes d\u2019emplois (directs + indirects + induits \u00e0 5 ans) :<br>\u00a0<strong>~300 000 \u00e0 450 000 emplois<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Impact sur les recettes fiscales totales<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En Belgique, les <strong>recettes publiques totales<\/strong> repr\u00e9sentent environ :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>45\u201347 % du PIB<\/strong> (imp\u00f4ts + cotisations sociales)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Application au gain de PIB<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Gain de PIB<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Taux pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Recettes suppl\u00e9mentaires<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>+18 Md\u20ac<\/td><td>45 %<\/td><td>+8,1 Md\u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>+21 Md\u20ac (sc\u00e9nario central)<\/td><td>46 %<\/td><td><strong>+9,5\u201310 Md\u20ac<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>+24 Md\u20ac<\/td><td>47 %<\/td><td>+11,3 Md\u20ac<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ordre de grandeur cr\u00e9dible<\/strong> :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<strong>+9 \u00e0 +11 milliards \u20ac de recettes publiques annuelles<\/strong> \u00e0 5 ans<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Ventilation : \u00c9tat vs S\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A. S\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale (cotisations)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hypoth\u00e8ses :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cotisations sociales moyennes : <strong>\u2248 35\u201340 % du salaire brut<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Salaire industriel moyen > salaire moyen national<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>+300k \u00e0 +450k emplois<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Estimation annuelle<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Emplois nets<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Cotisations moyennes<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Recettes<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>300 000<\/td><td>~20 000 \u20ac<\/td><td>+6 Md\u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>375 000<\/td><td>~22 000 \u20ac<\/td><td><strong>+7\u20138 Md\u20ac<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>450 000<\/td><td>~24 000 \u20ac<\/td><td>+10 Md\u20ac<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sc\u00e9nario central <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6900\" class=\"has-inline-color\">MDM<\/mark><\/strong> :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>+7 \u00e0 +8 milliards \u20ac par an pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Effets positifs associ\u00e9s :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>financement durable des pensions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>renforcement assurance-maladie<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>baisse du d\u00e9ficit structurel de la s\u00e9cu<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">B. Fiscalit\u00e9 \u201c\u00c9tat\u201d (imp\u00f4ts directs &amp; indirects)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inclut :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>imp\u00f4t des personnes physiques<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>imp\u00f4t des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>TVA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>accises li\u00e9es \u00e0 la production<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Estimation prudente<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Part r\u00e9siduelle des recettes : <strong>+2 \u00e0 +3 Md\u20ac \/ an<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Effet total \u00c9tat f\u00e9d\u00e9ral + r\u00e9gions<\/strong> :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>+2 \u00e0 +3 milliards \u20ac par an<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Synth\u00e8se chiffr\u00e9e (\u00e0 5 ans)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Poste<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Gain annuel estim\u00e9<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>S\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale<\/td><td><strong>+7 \u00e0 +8 Md\u20ac<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fiscalit\u00e9 \u00c9tat &amp; r\u00e9gions<\/td><td><strong>+2 \u00e0 +3 Md\u20ac<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total recettes publiques<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>+9 \u00e0 +11 Md\u20ac<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Effets budg\u00e9taires indirects (souvent oubli\u00e9s)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En plus des recettes nouvelles :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2714D\u00e9penses \u00e9vit\u00e9es<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Moins de ch\u00f4mage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Moins de pr\u00e9pensions subies<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Moins d\u2019aides compensatoires<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c9conomie estim\u00e9e : <strong>1,5 \u00e0 2,5 Md\u20ac \/ an<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2714Effet cumulatif<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Meilleure soutenabilit\u00e9 des finances publiques<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>R\u00e9duction du d\u00e9ficit structurel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Capacit\u00e9 d\u2019investissement accrue<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Message politique simple <\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00ab En cinq ans, la r\u00e9industrialisation peut rapporter jusqu\u2019\u00e0 10 milliards d\u2019euros par an aux finances publiques, dont l\u2019essentiel pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ou plus p\u00e9dagogique :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00ab Produire en Belgique, c\u2019est financer nos pensions, notre sant\u00e9 et notre protection sociale. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 politique <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6900\" class=\"has-inline-color\">MDM<\/mark><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2714Pas de promesse magique<br>\u2714Chiffres coh\u00e9rents entre PIB, emploi et recettes<br>\u2714Compatible UE et r\u00e8gles budg\u00e9taires<br>\u2714Narratif clair : <strong>industrie = solidarit\u00e9 financ\u00e9e<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Impact estim\u00e9 sur les recettes publiques (horizon 5 ans) Rappel du sc\u00e9nario \u00e9conomique retenu 1. Impact sur les recettes fiscales totales En Belgique, les recettes publiques totales repr\u00e9sentent environ : Application au gain de PIB Gain de PIB Taux pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements Recettes suppl\u00e9mentaires +18 Md\u20ac 45 % +8,1 Md\u20ac +21 Md\u20ac (sc\u00e9nario central) 46 % +9,5\u201310 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":2485,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2498","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2498"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2498\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2500,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2498\/revisions\/2500"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2485"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}