{"id":2492,"date":"2026-01-11T11:39:52","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T10:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/?page_id=2492"},"modified":"2026-01-11T11:39:52","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T10:39:52","slug":"effet-total-sur-lemploi-belge","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/programme\/priorites\/reindustrialisation\/effet-total-sur-lemploi-belge\/","title":{"rendered":"Effet total sur l’emploi belge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Voici une estimation macro-\u00e9conomique r\u00e9aliste de l\u2019effet sur l\u2019emploi total<\/strong>, exprim\u00e9e en milliers de postes<\/strong>, en distinguant emplois directs, indirects et induits<\/strong>.
Il s\u2019agit volontairement d\u2019ordres de grandeur cr\u00e9dibles, utilisables politiquement sans sur-promesse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
Point de d\u00e9part (Belgique aujourd\u2019hui)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Emploi total : \u2248 5,1 millions de personnes<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Emploi industriel manufacturier : \u2248 500 000<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Part industrielle : \u2248 10 % de l\u2019emploi total<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n
    Hypoth\u00e8se centrale du programme MDM<\/mark> (horizon 2035\u20132040)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Passage de 10 % \u2192 15\u201318 % d\u2019emplois industriels<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • R\u00e9industrialisation moderne<\/strong> (donc automatis\u00e9e, mais cr\u00e9atrice de valeur)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Forte int\u00e9gration locale (PME, sous-traitance, services)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \n\n\n\n
      1. Cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois industriels directs<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
      Hypoth\u00e8se prudente<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • +5 points d\u2019emploi industriel
        \u2192 +250 000 emplois industriels directs<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
        Hypoth\u00e8se haute (volontariste)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        • +7 \u00e0 +8 points
          \u2192 +350 000 \u00e0 +400 000 emplois industriels directs<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          Fourchette cr\u00e9dible :<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          +250 000 \u00e0 +400 000 emplois industriels directs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
          2. Emplois indirects (sous-traitance, logistique, maintenance, ing\u00e9nierie)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

          Ratio couramment admis en Europe industrielle :
          1 emploi industriel = 0,8 \u00e0 1,2 emploi indirect<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Effet estim\u00e9<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
            \n
          • Bas : +200 000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Haut : +450 000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
            \n\n\n\n
            3. Emplois induits (commerce, services, restauration, territoires)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

            Ratio classique :
            1 emploi industriel = 0,5 \u00e0 0,8 emploi induit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Effet estim\u00e9<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
              \n
            • Bas : +125 000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Haut : +300 000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
              \n\n\n\n
              4. Effet total sur l\u2019emploi belge (ordre de grandeur)<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
              Type d\u2019emplois<\/strong><\/strong><\/td>Hypoth\u00e8se basse<\/strong><\/strong><\/td>Hypoth\u00e8se haute<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
              Emplois directs<\/td>+250 000<\/td>+400 000<\/td><\/tr>
              Emplois indirects<\/td>+200 000<\/td>+450 000<\/td><\/tr>
              Emplois induits<\/td>+125 000<\/td>+300 000<\/td><\/tr>
              TOTAL<\/strong><\/td>\u2248 +575 000<\/strong><\/td>\u2248 +1 150 000<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
              \n\n\n\n
              Chiffre politique central <\/h6>\n\n\n\n

              Pour rester ambitieux mais cr\u00e9dible<\/strong>, le MDM<\/mark> avance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \u00ab Entre 600 000 et 900 000 emplois cr\u00e9\u00e9s ou consolid\u00e9s en Belgique d\u2019ici 2040 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la r\u00e9industrialisation. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              ou plus synth\u00e9tique :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \u00ab Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 1 million d\u2019emplois directs et indirects gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la r\u00e9industrialisation moderne. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n
              Points importants pour la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
                \n
              • \u274c Ce ne sont pas uniquement des \u201cnouveaux\u201d emplois
                \u2714Une part correspond \u00e0 des emplois relocalis\u00e9s<\/strong>, s\u00e9curis\u00e9s<\/strong> ou transform\u00e9s<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • \u2714L\u2019industrie moderne d\u00e9truit moins d\u2019emplois qu\u2019elle n\u2019en cr\u00e9e lorsqu\u2019elle est adoss\u00e9e \u00e0 une strat\u00e9gie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et de comp\u00e9tences<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • \u2714L\u2019impact territorial est fort (Wallonie industrielle, Flandre technologique, reconversion urbaine)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
                \n\n\n\n
                Message politique simple <\/h6>\n\n\n\n

                \u00ab R\u00e9industrialiser, ce n\u2019est pas sauver quelques usines.<\/strong>
                C\u2019est recr\u00e9er jusqu\u2019\u00e0 un million d\u2019emplois dans toute l\u2019\u00e9conomie belge. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                Voici une estimation macro-\u00e9conomique r\u00e9aliste de l\u2019effet sur l\u2019emploi total, exprim\u00e9e en milliers de postes, en distinguant emplois directs, indirects et induits.Il s\u2019agit volontairement d\u2019ordres de grandeur cr\u00e9dibles, utilisables politiquement sans sur-promesse. Point de d\u00e9part (Belgique aujourd\u2019hui) Hypoth\u00e8se centrale du programme MDM (horizon 2035\u20132040) 1. Cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois industriels directs Hypoth\u00e8se prudente Hypoth\u00e8se haute (volontariste) Fourchette […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":2485,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2492","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2492"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2494,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2492\/revisions\/2494"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2485"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/droitemoderniste.be\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}